With his eighth-inning single to center field,
Derek Jeter tied Paul Waner for 16th
in the all-time hits category with 3,152. Two more base hits will tie
Jeter with George Brett and move the Yankees’ captain into the top 15.
Jeter is clearly off to a solid start in 2012, so I want to
take a look at where he may sit among the all-time greats when his career is
all said and done.
Of course, this is all hypothetical; it is very possible that
Jeter’s age catches up to him and he begins to decline. It is also possible
that he maintains this torrid pace throughout the near future. As unlikely as
it is, there is still the slightest chance Jeter could start hitting even
better than he is now.
With 64 hits in the Yankees’ first 44 games (Jeter missing
just one), the shortstop is on pace for about 235 hits, which would top his
career high of 219. At this rate, his
career total at the end of this season, 3,323, would rank him ninth all-time.
The shortstop is currently signed through the 2013 campaign,
with the Yankees holding the option for 2014. It is way too early to tell for
sure if they’ll pick up the option, but let’s assume Jeter is still the
everyday shortstop in 2014.
Should Jeter finish 2012 with 235 hits, he will have
averaged about 195 hits per season. It is tough to say just how many hits Jeter
will rack up throughout 2013 and ’14, so I think this average is a good way to
estimate. At the end of ’14, the then-40-year-old’s career total would be at
3,713, good for fourth on the all-time list.
At that amount, Jeter would sit 58 hits behind Hank Aaron,
287 short of 4,000, 476 behind Ty Cobb, and 543 behind record-holder Pete Rose.
It is really tough to say where Jeter’s career would go from
there. Assuming the Yankees would still want him and have a spot on the roster
reserved for him, so much of these calculations depend on his health, how much
longer he wants to play and how much time he spends on the field.
Because of these variables, let’s compare Jeter’s age (38
next month) to the ages of the players ahead of him on the all-time list.
For players at the age of 38, Jeter ranks above all but five
players. Only Cobb (3,821), Aaron (3,391), Rose (3,372), Tris Speaker (3,292)
and Stan Musial (3,203) accumulated more hits by the age of 38 than Jeter has
(3,152). All five of those legends compose the top five of the all-time hits
list.
Personally, I don’t think Jeter will break Rose’s record. Jeter
is not the kind of player who would prolong his career for the sake of setting
records, and he would have to play well into his 40s to top Rose. I think the
Yankees would have to go on a title drought for the next few seasons and Jeter
would have to be really hungry for a championship for him to continue playing
at that age.
But reaching 4,000 hits is not out of the question. If Jeter
is willing to play into his early 40s, he could have another accomplishment to
add to his Hall of Fame plaque.